Main geopolitics and security trends of 2024

Dr. Raj Kumar Sharma - Senior Research Fellow, NatStrat

The world today is more multipolar with weak multilateralism. Great Power Competition is infusing insecurity among the major powers which in turn brings disorder in global politics. The Cold War luxury of relative stability and predictability is no more available in the current global order. The multi-alignment model of India is proving to be the most effective one to handle these challenges in 2025. 

Two Major Active Wars and the Fall of Syria

In the Russia-Ukraine War, Ukraine was able to secure and continue its self-defence due to a USD 61 billion aid package approved by the US Congress in April 2024. Russia still occupies around 18 percent of Ukraine’s territory. In an audacious move in August 2024, the Ukrainian military conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk Oblast where it continues to hold territory.

Russia has regained almost 40 percent of the 530 square miles that Ukraine had initially captured. President Putin visited North Korea in June 2024 to sign a mutual defence treaty. Pyongyang has sent around 12,000 soldiers to fight along with Russian troops in Ukraine.

There have been attempts from both sides to escalate the war. In November 2024, the US President Joe Biden permitted Ukraine to use long-range American weapons to strike deep inside Russia. In response, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine to state that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state that is carried out with the help of a nuclear state will be considered as a joint attack on Russia.

The subsequent appearance of the Russian Oreshnik missile system has minimised the need to use nuclear weapons, accordin to President Putin. Ukraine has taken the war deeper inside Russia by targeting Kazan which is almost 1,000 kilometres away from the frontline. Kiev also eliminated a high-ranking Russian General who headed Moscow’s Radiation, Biological and Chemical Defence Forces.

The other major war between Israel and Hamas completed a year in October 2024. Almost 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip along with the large-scale destruction of infrastructure and property. Israel had major successes by eliminating Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah and Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) among many other targets.

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) had issued a warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Despite major escalations in 2024, Israel and Iran were able to avert an all out war during 2024 but tensions continue to simmer.

The final collapse of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria in December 2024 at the hands of rebel Islamic forces marked the climax to a bloody and tempestuous year for West Asia. It added a further layer of complexity to West Asian geopolitics signifying weakening of Iranian and Russian influence in the region, clear gains for Turkey and uncertainty for the US and Israel.

Europe: Defensive Militarisation, Strategic Autonomy

Europe is facing serious questions about its political, economic and security concerns. It sees the Russia-Ukraine War as an existential challenge. Political instability, the leadership crisis, rising tide of Euroscepticism, increasing defence budgets, migration and energy crisis are some of the major issues Europe faces today.

Political uncertainty in France and Germany has created a leadership crisis in the continent. There are differences among the European countries on whether or not to engage Russia evident from recent attempts by Germany, Hungary and Slovakia to directly talk to President Putin.

The trans-Atlantic alliance is under stress. The continent is worried about President-elect Trump’s potential attempts to force Ukraine to cede land to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. Europe is likely to reduce its dependency on the US for security under a Trump Administration and move towards increased defence spending within the burden-sharing arrangement under NATO. Europe is embracing militarisation in order to ‘Trump-proof itself.

The possibility of a European Defence Union is already being considered in order to strengthen Europe’s voice in defence and security matters around the world and to facilitate more defence cooperation and better integrated defence capabilities among European countries. Compared to 2023, the combined defence spending in Europe increased 17 percent, from €279 billion to €326 billion in 2024. Sweden joined NATO as its 32^nd member in March 2024.

If President-elect Trump pushes for a hasty and untidy peace with Russia which Europe sees as diminishing its security, Europe may show less enthusiasm in joining Trump in his forward policy on China.

Indo-Pacific: Calm before the Storm?

With brimming tensions, the Indo-Pacific region remained a potential flashpoint in 2024. The year began with Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te winning the Presidential election in Taiwan. In response, Beijing conducted two large-scale military drills around Taiwan that simulated a full-scale attack in 2024.

China has opposed America’s recent arms sale to Taiwan. The June 2024 clashes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea prompted Manila to strengthen defence cooperation with Washington. In August 2024, Japan had confirmed the first incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into its airspace leading to tensions.

China’s aggressive stance appeared to mellow with Beijing reaching an agreement with India to end the border standoff in Eastern Ladakh in October 2024. In June, Premier Li Qiang visited Australia and met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The two countries decided to improve military communication to avoid incidents. In November 2024, Japan and China held a Summit meeting followed by the Japanese Foreign Minister’s visit to China last week.

China’s Foreign Minister will be visiting Japan in 2025. By working towards a thaw in its relations with all the Quad countries except the US, China has set the stage for dealing with atransactional Trump Administration.

BRICS and the Global South

The Global South was resurgent. In October 2024, Russia hosted the 16^th BRICS Summit in which 32 countries participated, defying attempts to isolate President Putin. Four additional countries, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE were admitted to BRICS.

On 1 January 2025, nine countries including Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda and Uzbekistan will become BRICS Partner countries. The most significant development of the BRICS Summit was the meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan, their first in five years.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Kazan, Russia, for the first time in five years, October 2024.

India is likely to make efforts to convene the fourth India-Africa Summit in 2025 which will be in line with its attempts to be the voice of Global South and further deepen ties with African partners.

India’s Neighbourhood: New Issues in Bangladesh, Myanmar

India’s neighbourhood proved to be a rollercoaster ride where mixed results are visible. From January to October 2024, India-Maldives ties moved from bad to better culminating in President Mohamed Muizzu’s India visit in the second week of October. Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Disanayaka set a new foundation for the relationship with India in his maiden visit in December 2024.

Bangladesh made the transition from being India’s close partner in South Asia to an emerging country of concern ever since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power on 5th August 2024. The regime change in Dhaka has emboldened the Islamic radicals, opening the gates for rolling back progress in India-Bangladesh relations and attacks on Hindus in the country.

The current trend suggests that Bangladesh will engage and try to deepen ties with Islamabad. India will keep a close eye on developments in Myanmar where the military junta is reported to control less than half of Myanmar’s territory. Despite continued political instability in Nepal, its ties with India did not see too much fluctuation. India-Bhutan ties remained close and cordial.

After easing of tensions with China, a thaw in ties with Pakistan could be debated in New Delhi but its prospects remain low unless Islamabad is ready for a major change in its policy of supporting terrorism against India. New Delhi closely followed the internal upheaval and collapsing law and order situation in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the increasing hostility between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistan Army. India’s pragmatic approach will continue with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Marginalised United Nations

The ongoing great power rivalry has pushed the United Nations on the margins of global politics. Even in the reluctant West, the need for UN Security Council reform has been highlighted to maintain the UN’s relevance in maintaining peace and security.

The November 2024 UN Climate Change Conference, COP 29, held in Azerbaijan fell far short of global climate finance targets. This came after the UN's Summit of the Future in September 2024 which adopted three foundational agreements to safeguard future generations: the Pact for the Future, Global Digital Compact, and Declaration on Future Generations.

Today’s world is facing a ‘polycrisis’ with multiple challenges existing simultaneously. The UN will be celebrating its 80^th anniversary in 2025 but to stay relevant in a rapidly changing world, it needs to reform itself.

The Mystique of Donald Trump Looms Large

In a divided world torn apart by ongoing conflicts, it seems ironic that the hope in 2025 comes from an unlikely quarter: the incoming US President Donald Trump, a man who is seen as a disruptor in world politics.

There are ample indications that the President elect Trump will try to halt the Russia-Ukraine war, if not solve the conflict, and attempt to improve relations with Russia. He has hinted he will make efforts to ‘un-unite’ Russia and China. This will be in line with President elect Trump’s belief in strategic unpredictability in order to maximise gains for the US which aligns with his ‘America First’ policy.

However, the chatter around Russia flipping against China to normalise ties with the West under the Trump administration looks far-fetched at the moment. India will keenly watch the US-Russia relationship in coming days as a thaw in Russia-West relations works to India’s advantage. 

The world today is more multipolar with weak multilateralism. Great Power Competition is infusing strategic insecurity among major powers which in turn brings disorder in global politics. The Cold War luxury of relative stability and predictability is no more available in the current global order. The multi-alignment model of India is proving to be the most effective one to handle these challenges in 2025.

(Exclusive to NatStrat)