Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China. | Yao YilongImaginechina/AP Images
This article is the second in the three-part series by Pradeep Kumar Saxena and Teerath Singh Mehra, who discuss India-China relations through the lens of water management. They argue that Chinese construction of the world’s largest dam will impact all states downstream of China, especially India but also Bangladesh.
Expert Level Mechanism, 2006
The Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) was established through a Joint Declaration in 2006. Since its inception through this Joint Declaration, the ELM has evolved into a structured, ongoing dialogue between the two nations. The ELM specifically addresses hydrological data provision during flood seasons, emergency management protocols and various issues concerning trans-border rivers as mutually agreed. Following a well-established pattern, these meetings alternate annually between Indian and Chinese venues, fostering balanced engagement.
The ELM meetings follow a comprehensive agenda addressing multiple dimensions of water cooperation. Each meeting reviews previous commitments and agreements, examines data transmission effectiveness, addresses unforeseen flood events in Tibet and their downstream impacts, evaluates data utilisation through Indian reports, signs updated Implementation Plans (IPs) when necessary, and explores additional agenda items including flood management approaches, hydropower development considerations and potential new monitoring stations. The meetings typically include educational site visits to water resource projects in the host country, enhancing technical understanding between the nations.
This institutional mechanism represents a significant achievement in trans-boundary water management, establishing enduring channels for technical cooperation despite broader geopolitical complexities between the two countries. To date, 14 ELM meetings have been successfully convened, the latest one being held in India in June 2023. These meetings demonstrate the mechanism's durability and importance of continuing this valuable tradition of technical cooperation.
Mega Dam on the Brahmaputra: the latest flashpoint
China has recently approved construction of the world's largest dam/project on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet near the Indian border, with an unprecedented $137 billion investment, surpassing even China’s Three Gorges Dam. The project, situated at the river's U-turn before flowing into Arunachal Pradesh and Bangladesh involves a diversion of about half of the river’s flow, around 2,000 cumecs, through 20 km-long tunnels, to generate 60 GW of power or 300 billion kWh of electricity annually. This will be triple the Three Gorges Dam's capacity.
The massive project's location at this strategic point raises significant concerns for downstream regions, particularly India, regarding water availability, ecological impact and potential geopolitical implications. Post construction and initial filling of the reservoir, the power plant can be continuously run if the river flow exceeds the designed discharge of 2,000 cumecs and downstream areas will get normal river flow.
However, India’s concern is in the non-monsoon period. During this period, when the river flow is less than the design discharge, the reservoir will need to be filled up and there will be no flow during such a period of filling in the 150 km reach of the river from the India-China border to the confluence of the Siyom River at Panging River. Apart from the above, there will also be the probability of induced floods in India by China through the release of stored water in the reservoir. Thus, it has the potential to create significant geopolitical tensions in the region as it gives China unprecedented control over a critical water resource for multiple countries. India has voiced concerns through diplomatic channels and expert-level discussions, fearing China could control water flow or potentially release floods during conflicts.
Analysis of Brahmaputra River Basin Drainage and Water Yield
An assessment based on statistical data reveals that 50 per cent of the Brahmaputra River basin is in China but it accounts for only 22 to 30 per cent of the total basin’s discharge. The cold Tibetan weather and scanty rainfall and snowfall amounting to 4-12 inches per annum are mainly responsible for this. Bhutan, despite its small size, contributes an equally significant 21 per cent while covering only 6.7 per cent of the river basin. The Indian basin, which covers 34.2 per cent of the area, contributes the maximum, that is, 39 per cent of the total discharge in the Brahmaputra River. Only 14 per cent of the entire Brahmaputra flow is therefore in the river before it enters India. The balance 86 per cent is contributed by the rains and monsoons in India. It is thus evident that China’s contribution to the river flow of the Brahmaputra is minor, though not insignificant. The several streams and large tributaries like the Siyom joining the Siang in Indian catchments enhance the water availability in Indian territory during the monsoon.
However, the point of concern remains the non-monsoon contribution from Indian territory which is substantially lower and calls for taking mitigation measures. China reportedly intends to divert approximately 50 BCM of Brahmaputra waters, with about 16 BCM during the lean season as inter-basin transfer. Without mitigating measures, this could result in 80 to 85 per cent reduction in water availability thereby reduction of energy generation too from Run-of-River (RoR) projects during the lean season. The Lower Brahmaputra Valley would lose navigability due to insufficient water flow. Flood peaks may accumulate due to upstream operations affecting flood management strategies. Riverine ecosystems would likely be disrupted due to reduced water flow during the lean periods.
There would be significant impact on planned river interlinking projects, particularly the Manas-Sankosh-Teesta-Ganga (MSTG) Link. Additionally, this situation would create increased security vulnerability as China would gain strategic capability to create flash floods in the Siang/Brahmaputra region at any time. Bangladesh too will have to bear a significant impact including reduced water availability, increased salinity and food insecurity. China has assured that the dam will not negatively impact downstream countries like India and Bangladesh. However, due to the lack of transparency by China over the project, both countries remain concerned. India needs to take urgent measures to prepare its water security strategy.
Effect on Bangladesh
Bangladesh occupies the lower-most position in the Brahmaputra basin. Within its borders, the Brahmaputra transforms into the Jamuna River before ultimately draining into the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh too worries about reduced water flow causing scarcity and ecological disruption. More than half of its 170 million population depend directly on the river's flow for agricultural irrigation, drinking water supply, fisheries and aquatic resources, and livelihood sustainability.
The construction of dams by China in the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra creates several challenges for Bangladesh too. Flow obstruction could lead to significant water shortages, particularly during lean periods when river levels naturally decrease. The sudden release of water from dams poses substantial flood hazards to downstream communities. Altered river flow patterns may increase riverbank erosion and negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. Valuable fish species like Hilsa and Mahseer face population decline due to changed hydrological conditions. Communities dependent on the river for their economic survival face increasing vulnerability because of these changes. (End of Part II. Part III to follow)
(Exclusive to NatStrat)
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