Climate change refugees in India searching for better employment opportunities. | Raisina House
The lack of substantial legal framework in South Asia to deal with climateinduced displacement remains a pressing problem in the region. As climate change intensifies, the displacement of vulnerable populations will continue to grow in future. This may be the time for India to begin an honest debate on this issue in the region. The onus, however, is equally on the other governments in the region to address this challenge. To begin with, the governments should start collecting data on human mobility induced by climate change related events in South Asia.
Introduction
South Asia faces a critical problem: extreme weather events are causing displacement, both internal and external but the region lacks a proper legal framework to deal with this issue.
The geographical realities of South Asia reveal that India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal floods, landlocked states like Afghanistan, Nepal and Bhutan will be affected by melting of glaciers while Maldives faces an outright existential threat of submersion.
This year’s unprecedented hot and rainy seasons in North India has shown that the infrastructure and planning to deal with extreme weather events is not adequate.
Climate change is a pressing global issue, affecting every continent and nation, but some regions are more vulnerable than others. South Asia, home to over 1.7 billion people, faces a serious risk of climate induced displacement due to its high population density, poverty, food insecurity, extreme weather events and lack of proper infrastructure in the region. India is one of the top three host countries of international migrants, refugees and asylum seekers in the Southeast Asian region and in all likelihood will receive climate refugees from neighbouring countries in times to come. Water shortage in Pakistan’s Sindh province and southern Punjab could exacerbate in coming years inducing influx of refugees to India. Similarly, sea level rise in Bangladesh or Maldives again could cause migration of people to India. The regional cooperation mechanisms like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) are non-functional at the moment.
Climate Refugees in South Asia
Extreme weather displacement in South Asia is giving rise to what are now known as "climate refugees." However, this term remains ambiguous in the international legal framework, as it lacks formal recognition. Climate refugees, sometimes referred to as environmental migrants, are individuals or groups forced to leave their homes due to sudden or gradual changes in their environment caused by climate change. These changes include flooding, drought, desertification, and sea-level rise.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that there could be between twenty five million to one billion climate refugees globally by 2050, with significant portions in South Asia.
Bangladesh, for instance, is particularly vulnerable, with one-third of its population residing in coastal areas prone to flooding. Rising sea levels threaten to submerge vast portions of the country, potentially displacing millions of people. Similarly, in India, cities like Mumbai and Kolkata face severe flooding risks, and the melting of Himalayan glaciers threatens water security for millions of people across the region. It has been estimated that eight million migrants will arrive in ten Global South cities by 2050, if the carbon emissions do not fall. Karachi and Dhaka could receive almost six million climate refugees, a major concern for both Pakistan and Bangladesh. The Sundarbans Delta of Bangladesh is one of the high-risk areas and it is estimated that around fifty to one hundred twenty million climate refugees might migrate to India.
Legal Framework for Climate Refugees
The term "refugee" is traditionally governed by the 1951 Refugee Convention, which defines refugees as individuals fleeing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion. Notably, climate-induced displacement does not fit into this definition, as the Convention does not recognise environmental factors as legitimate grounds for refugee status.
This legal gap leaves climate refugees without international protection under current refugee law. They do not have access to the rights and benefits typically accorded to conventional refugees, such as the right to asylum, protection from refoulement (forced return to their home countries), and access to social services. Furthermore, the reluctance of states to expand the definition of a refugee to include climate-displaced individuals exacerbates this governance issue.
South Asia has no regional agreement or legal mechanism to address climate-induced migration. Most countries in South Asia are not signatories to the 1951 Refugee Convention and none have adopted a specific legal framework for climate refugees. Instead, they rely on domestic laws and ad-hoc measures to address migration issues, often within the broader context of disaster management.
For example, India's National Disaster Management Act (2005) and National Action Plan on Climate Change (2008) offer a framework for disaster preparedness and adaptation, which could be expanded to address climate-induced displacement and migration. Similarly, Nepal and Bhutan, highly vulnerable to glacier melting, floods and changing monsoon patterns, have developed a National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) and Climate Change Policy (2011), focusing on risk management, with potential to include legal protections for displaced populations.
Sri Lanka, dealing with sea-level rise and extreme weather, has implemented a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (2011-2016) that could integrate climate-induced migration, while the Maldives, facing existential threats, continues to advocate for international legal recognition of displaced communities despite lacking domestic laws on the issue. Bangladesh has also taken a proactive stance by creating policies and strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, such as the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP).
Climate refugees boarding a ship for greener pastures. | National Maritime Foundation
International Legal Perspective
The international legal framework governing climate refugees remains weak. There have been calls for expanding the 1951 Refugee Convention to include climate refugees, but this faces significant political resistance from countries that fear an influx of migrants. Alternatively, new international legal instruments specifically tailored to address climate-induced displacement could be developed. One avenue for protection is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which recognises the need for addressing loss and damage associated with climate change, including displacement. However, the Paris Agreement, adopted under the UNFCCC, does not include binding provisions for climate refugees, leaving it as a voluntary mechanism.
In 2018, the Global Compact for Migration (GCM) was adopted, which includes a commitment to address climate-induced migration. While non-binding, the GCM represents a step towards international recognition of the issue. However, South Asian countries have yet to fully integrate the GCM’s objectives into their domestic legal systems. Another significant development occurred in 2020 when the UN Human Rights Committee ruled in a case brought by Ioane Teitiota, a Kiribati national, who claimed asylum in New Zealand due to climate change-induced threats in his home country. While the Committee did not recognise Teitiota as a climate refugee, it affirmed that countries may not return individuals to territories where their right to life is threatened due to climate change. This landmark ruling may pave the way for further legal developments in the field of climate refugee protection.
Vanuatu's National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) focuses on planned, government-assisted relocation to less vulnerable areas, providing a model for structured migration programs in climate-affected regions. Similarly, the Philippines' Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act (2010) integrates climate displacement into broader disaster preparedness, evacuation, and recovery strategies. South Asian countries facing frequent natural disasters could adopt similar legal frameworks to manage climate-induced displacement within their borders.
Potential Way Forward for South Asia
SAARC's 2008 Action Plan on Climate Change provided a regional framework for addressing climate impact but it lacks a focus on climate-induced displacement. The failure to integrate migration into regional climate governance has resulted in a lack of comprehensive policies to protect climate refugees. A more concerted regional effort is necessary to address the cross-border migration of climate refugees, with SAARC being a key potential platform for initiating this process.
Apart from these initiatives South Asian countries should also advocate stronger international legal recognition through platforms like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), while implementing adaptive strategies such as resilient infrastructure and improved early warning systems.
Lastly, securing climate finance from developed nations and international institutions is essential to support adaptation efforts and protect displaced populations.
Conclusion
The lack of substantial legal framework in South Asia to deal with climate induced displacement remains a pressing problem in the region. As climate change intensifies, the displacement of vulnerable populations will continue to grow in future. South Asia, being highly susceptible to climate-induced displacement, must take the lead in creating a robust legal and governance framework to protect climate refugees. This requires both national and regional initiatives, as well as active participation in global efforts to address the legal and humanitarian needs of those displaced by climate change. This may be the time for India to begin an honest debate on this issue in the region. The onus, however, is equally on the other governments in the region to address this challenge. To begin with, the governments should start collecting data on human mobility induced by climate change-related events in South Asia.
(Exclusive to NatStrat)
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